Japan · Season 2019 · Data up to 14 Dec 2019

J1 League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Yokohama F. Marinos	34	70	53.4	+16.6	+36.0%
2	FC Tokyo	34	64	53.9	+10.1	+14.4%
3	Kashima Antlers	34	63	53.0	+10.0	+15.1%
4	Cerezo Osaka	34	59	50.1	+8.9	+24.1%
5	Oita Trinita	34	47	42.3	+4.7	−0.8%
6	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	34	55	50.4	+4.6	+6.7%
7	Gamba Osaka	34	47	45.0	+2.0	−8.6%
8	Tokushima	3	5	4.2	+0.8	−23.7%
9	Montedio Yamagata	2	3	2.2	+0.8	+83.5%
10	Vegalta Sendai	34	41	40.4	+0.6	+0.4%
11	Kofu	1	1	1.4	−0.4	−100.0%
12	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	34	46	46.4	−0.4	−3.4%
13	Vissel Kobe	34	47	48.1	−1.1	+4.1%
14	Omiya Ardija	1	0	1.7	−1.7	−100.0%
15	Kawasaki Frontale	34	60	62.2	−2.2	−15.0%
16	Sagan Tosu	34	36	38.3	−2.3	−2.1%
17	Shimizu S-Pulse	34	39	41.6	−2.6	−6.8%
18	Shonan Bellmare	35	37	40.1	−3.1	−8.1%
19	Yamaga	34	31	36.7	−5.7	−38.4%
20	Iwata	34	31	38.9	−7.9	−30.4%
21	Urawa Reds	34	37	45.3	−8.3	−36.0%
22	Nagoya Grampus	34	37	50.2	−13.2	−36.2%