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Japan · Season 2020 · Data up to 19 Dec 2020

J1 League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Gamba Osaka 34 65 47.3
+17.7
+54.8%
2 Kawasaki Frontale 34 83 69.6
+13.4
+18.7%
3 Nagoya Grampus 34 63 52.2
+10.8
+26.9%
4 Cerezo Osaka 34 60 49.7
+10.3
+20.9%
5 FC Tokyo 34 57 50.3
+6.7
+14.8%
6 Kashima Antlers 34 59 55.7
+3.3
+7.0%
7 Oita Trinita 34 43 40.0
+3.0
+14.1%
8 Kashiwa Reysol 34 52 50.1
+1.9
+7.1%
9 Urawa Reds 34 46 44.8
+1.2
−5.9%
10 Yokohama FC 34 33 34.0
−1.0
−8.2%
11 Sagan Tosu 34 36 38.5
−2.5
−30.7%
12 Shonan Bellmare 34 27 31.8
−4.8
−19.1%
13 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 34 48 54.3
−6.3
−22.0%
14 Vegalta Sendai 34 28 34.5
−6.5
−22.2%
15 Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 34 39 45.5
−6.5
−18.1%
16 Yokohama F. Marinos 34 47 56.0
−9.0
−19.1%
17 Shimizu S-Pulse 34 28 37.8
−9.8
−43.8%
18 Vissel Kobe 34 36 49.5
−13.5
−43.1%