Japan · Season 2021 · Data up to 4 Dec 2021

J1 League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Vissel Kobe	38	73	55.0	+18.0	+29.8%
2	Avispa Fukuoka	38	54	40.8	+13.2	+46.8%
3	Kawasaki Frontale	38	92	80.3	+11.7	+9.6%
4	Urawa Reds	38	63	52.7	+10.3	+15.8%
5	Yokohama F. Marinos	38	79	70.0	+9.0	+7.9%
6	Sagan Tosu	38	59	51.4	+7.6	+14.9%
7	Nagoya Grampus	38	66	59.4	+6.6	+9.4%
8	Kashima Antlers	38	69	66.1	+2.9	+10.8%
9	Gamba Osaka	38	44	44.3	−0.3	+5.0%
10	FC Tokyo	38	53	55.2	−2.2	−12.4%
11	Oita Trinita	38	35	37.7	−2.7	−21.9%
12	Cerezo Osaka	38	48	52.9	−4.9	−14.3%
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	38	42	47.2	−5.2	−22.7%
14	Shonan Bellmare	38	37	43.2	−6.2	−42.8%
15	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	38	51	58.0	−7.0	−24.4%
16	Yokohama FC	38	27	34.7	−7.7	−20.6%
17	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	38	49	56.7	−7.7	−25.2%
18	Kashiwa Reysol	38	41	49.8	−8.8	−13.4%
19	Tokushima	38	36	45.4	−9.4	−22.0%
20	Vegalta Sendai	38	28	37.5	−9.5	−49.0%