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Japan · Season 2022 · Data up to 13 Nov 2022

J1 League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Yokohama F. Marinos 34 68 60.7
+7.3
+9.8%
2 Kawasaki Frontale 34 66 61.2
+4.8
+8.6%
3 Kashiwa Reysol 34 47 42.8
+4.2
+10.3%
4 FC Tokyo 34 49 45.1
+3.9
+13.4%
5 Cerezo Osaka 34 51 49.0
+2.0
−3.8%
6 Montedio Yamagata 2 4 2.6
+1.4
+40.5%
7 Gamba Osaka 34 37 35.8
+1.2
+15.7%
8 Oita Trinita 1 1 1.4
−0.4
−100.0%
9 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 34 55 55.7
−0.7
−9.7%
10 Kyoto 35 37 37.7
−0.7
−16.9%
11 Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 34 45 45.7
−0.7
−10.8%
12 Kumamoto 3 3 3.8
−0.8
−100.0%
13 Okayama 1 0 1.4
−1.4
−100.0%
14 Nagoya Grampus 34 46 47.5
−1.5
−18.9%
15 Shonan Bellmare 34 41 42.7
−1.7
−12.7%
16 Kashima Antlers 34 52 53.8
−1.8
−25.0%
17 Sagan Tosu 34 42 44.1
−2.1
−30.4%
18 Iwata 34 30 32.9
−2.9
−8.2%
19 Avispa Fukuoka 34 38 41.0
−3.0
−28.6%
20 Vissel Kobe 34 40 46.1
−6.1
−21.7%
21 Urawa Reds 34 45 51.9
−6.9
−39.3%
22 Shimizu S-Pulse 34 33 41.2
−8.2
−44.6%