Japan · Season 2023 · Data up to 3 Dec 2023

J1 League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Vissel Kobe	34	71	54.7	+16.3	+35.8%
2	Avispa Fukuoka	34	51	41.0	+10.0	+33.5%
3	Yokohama F. Marinos	34	64	55.7	+8.3	+15.9%
4	Kyoto	34	40	36.5	+3.5	+19.1%
5	Urawa Reds	34	57	53.6	+3.4	−6.0%
6	Albirex Niigata	34	45	41.8	+3.2	+7.8%
7	Sagan Tosu	34	38	35.7	+2.3	−14.3%
8	Cerezo Osaka	34	49	47.0	+2.0	+14.3%
9	Nagoya Grampus	34	52	51.0	+1.0	−7.0%
10	Kashima Antlers	34	52	51.0	+1.0	−7.2%
11	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	34	58	59.2	−1.2	−9.1%
12	FC Tokyo	34	43	44.2	−1.2	−5.3%
13	Yokohama FC	34	29	31.3	−2.3	−13.0%
14	Kawasaki Frontale	34	50	55.5	−5.5	−16.2%
15	Shonan Bellmare	34	34	42.4	−8.4	−25.8%
16	Gamba Osaka	34	34	42.6	−8.6	−23.1%
17	Kashiwa Reysol	34	33	42.4	−9.4	−42.4%
18	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	34	40	50.0	−10.0	−34.5%