Japan · Season 2024 · Data up to 8 Dec 2024

J1 League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Gamba Osaka	38	66	50.6	+15.4	+28.6%
2	Verdy	38	56	47.4	+8.6	+10.7%
3	FC Tokyo	38	54	46.3	+7.7	+26.9%
4	Kashima Antlers	38	65	58.1	+6.9	+17.8%
5	Machida	38	66	59.1	+6.9	+13.2%
6	Avispa Fukuoka	38	50	45.4	+4.6	−2.7%
7	Vissel Kobe	38	72	68.0	+4.0	+5.3%
8	Kyoto	38	47	44.4	+2.6	+14.9%
9	Nagoya Grampus	38	50	49.5	+0.5	+21.7%
10	Cerezo Osaka	38	52	51.9	+0.1	−12.7%
11	Sagan Tosu	38	35	36.6	−1.6	+7.2%
12	Shonan Bellmare	38	45	46.8	−1.8	−4.4%
13	Yokohama F. Marinos	38	52	54.5	−2.5	−0.6%
14	Iwata	38	38	41.4	−3.4	−6.2%
15	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	38	68	72.7	−4.7	−17.7%
16	Kawasaki Frontale	38	52	57.8	−5.8	−23.5%
17	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	38	37	43.8	−6.8	−28.8%
18	Albirex Niigata	38	42	50.3	−8.3	−27.0%
19	Urawa Reds	38	48	56.7	−8.7	−25.3%
20	Kashiwa Reysol	38	41	55.2	−14.2	−43.5%