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England · Season 2019-20 · Data up to 10 Mar 2020

League One: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Coventry 34 67 54.4
+12.6
+9.3%
2 Wycombe 34 59 47.2
+11.8
+15.5%
3 Fleetwood Town 35 60 54.7
+5.3
−0.2%
4 Rotherham 35 62 57.2
+4.8
+13.4%
5 Oxford 35 60 55.6
+4.4
−2.0%
6 Peterborough 35 59 55.1
+3.9
+1.3%
7 Doncaster 34 54 50.7
+3.3
+1.9%
8 Gillingham 35 51 48.0
+3.0
−23.9%
9 Rochdale 34 36 34.2
+1.8
+2.4%
10 Bristol Rovers 35 45 43.3
+1.7
+7.3%
11 Portsmouth 35 60 59.6
+0.4
−12.2%
12 AFC Wimbledon 35 35 35.7
−0.7
−13.3%
13 Bolton 34 26 27.8
−1.8
−46.7%
14 Sunderland 36 59 62.0
−3.0
−15.6%
15 Shrewsbury 34 41 44.1
−3.1
−16.8%
16 Ipswich 36 52 55.3
−3.3
−18.3%
17 Blackpool 35 45 50.0
−5.0
−27.8%
18 Tranmere 34 32 37.3
−5.3
−13.8%
19 Burton 35 48 53.7
−5.7
−28.1%
20 Milton Keynes Dons 35 37 42.8
−5.8
−25.2%
21 Accrington 35 40 46.0
−6.0
−27.6%
22 Lincoln 35 42 48.2
−6.2
−15.9%
23 Southend 35 19 30.8
−11.8
−49.7%