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England · Season 2020-21 · Data up to 9 May 2021

League One: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Gillingham 46 67 55.4
+11.6
+26.6%
2 Hull 46 89 77.9
+11.1
+15.3%
3 Peterborough 46 87 76.9
+10.1
+10.8%
4 Blackpool 46 80 70.8
+9.2
+21.0%
5 Accrington 46 67 58.7
+8.3
+14.5%
6 Lincoln 46 77 70.4
+6.6
+5.9%
7 Charlton 46 74 69.2
+4.8
+9.5%
8 Ipswich 46 69 64.6
+4.4
−2.8%
9 Oxford 46 74 70.0
+4.0
−3.7%
10 Burton 46 57 54.5
+2.5
+4.4%
11 Doncaster 46 64 63.2
+0.8
+3.1%
12 Crewe 46 66 65.5
+0.5
−6.8%
13 Rochdale 46 47 48.3
−1.3
−14.0%
14 AFC Wimbledon 46 51 52.5
−1.5
−21.0%
15 Wigan 46 48 49.9
−1.9
+9.9%
16 Milton Keynes Dons 46 65 67.5
−2.5
−7.0%
17 Plymouth 46 53 56.5
−3.5
−18.1%
18 Shrewsbury 46 54 57.7
−3.7
−9.1%
19 Sunderland 46 77 80.7
−3.7
−16.6%
20 Northampton 46 45 49.2
−4.2
−22.6%
21 Fleetwood Town 46 60 65.2
−5.2
−15.3%
22 Portsmouth 46 72 78.0
−6.0
−5.1%
23 Swindon 46 43 49.3
−6.3
−3.1%
24 Bristol Rovers 46 38 52.9
−14.9
−30.3%