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England · Season 2021-22 · Data up to 30 Apr 2022

League One: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Milton Keynes Dons 46 89 70.4
+18.6
+31.8%
2 Plymouth 46 80 65.3
+14.7
+17.5%
3 Wigan 46 92 78.7
+13.3
+14.0%
4 Wycombe 46 83 71.2
+11.8
+4.2%
5 Cambridge 46 58 47.7
+10.3
+31.7%
6 Sheffield Wednesday 46 85 77.3
+7.7
+5.2%
7 Bolton 46 73 66.3
+6.7
+8.6%
8 Rotherham 46 90 85.6
+4.4
+2.0%
9 Sunderland 46 84 79.7
+4.3
−1.3%
10 Oxford 46 76 72.1
+3.9
−2.3%
11 Accrington 46 61 58.1
+2.9
+1.6%
12 Portsmouth 46 73 70.5
+2.5
−6.1%
13 Cheltenham 46 56 57.2
−1.2
−28.3%
14 Doncaster 46 38 41.6
−3.6
+5.2%
15 Burton 46 53 57.1
−4.1
−15.2%
16 Ipswich 46 70 74.9
−4.9
−23.3%
17 Charlton 46 59 65.5
−6.5
−4.0%
18 Morecambe 46 42 48.6
−6.6
−28.7%
19 Gillingham 46 40 46.7
−6.7
−43.5%
20 Shrewsbury 46 50 58.0
−8.0
−27.8%
21 Lincoln 46 52 61.7
−9.7
−11.1%
22 Fleetwood Town 46 40 53.2
−13.2
−42.7%
23 Crewe 46 29 45.9
−16.9
−50.6%
24 AFC Wimbledon 46 37 54.7
−17.7
−65.2%