England · Season 2022-23 · Data up to 7 May 2023

League One: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Plymouth	46	101	71.3	+29.7	+46.7%
2	Barnsley	46	86	71.7	+14.3	+25.7%
3	Sheffield Wednesday	46	96	86.2	+9.8	+4.2%
4	Lincoln	46	62	54.0	+8.0	+13.1%
5	Bolton	46	81	73.1	+7.9	+7.5%
6	Fleetwood Town	46	58	53.1	+4.9	+2.1%
7	Cheltenham	46	54	49.6	+4.4	+6.8%
8	Ipswich	46	98	93.9	+4.1	−3.9%
9	Burton	46	56	52.6	+3.4	+7.3%
10	Wycombe	46	69	65.7	+3.3	+12.4%
11	Peterborough	46	77	73.8	+3.2	+6.0%
12	Shrewsbury	46	59	55.9	+3.1	−1.5%
13	Morecambe	46	44	43.0	+1.0	−24.8%
14	Portsmouth	46	70	69.8	+0.2	−25.7%
15	Bristol Rovers	46	53	54.8	−1.8	−14.2%
16	Charlton	46	62	63.9	−1.9	−13.1%
17	Derby	46	76	80.2	−4.2	−18.3%
18	Exeter	46	56	61.9	−5.9	−20.9%
19	Accrington	46	44	49.9	−5.9	−18.3%
20	Cambridge	46	46	52.3	−6.3	−18.3%
21	Port Vale	46	49	60.8	−11.8	−31.5%
22	Milton Keynes Dons	46	45	57.1	−12.1	−31.4%
23	Forest Green	46	27	45.9	−18.9	−51.5%
24	Oxford	46	47	68.6	−21.6	−43.3%