England · Season 2023-24 · Data up to 27 Apr 2024

League One: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Portsmouth	46	97	79.5	+17.5	+20.6%
2	Lincoln	46	74	60.9	+13.1	+8.6%
3	Wigan	46	70	56.9	+13.1	+41.6%
4	Derby	46	92	84.2	+7.8	+11.2%
5	Bolton	46	87	80.0	+7.0	+1.7%
6	Northampton	46	60	53.4	+6.6	+18.1%
7	Oxford	46	77	70.7	+6.3	+4.2%
8	Exeter	46	61	55.1	+5.9	+13.3%
9	Barnsley	46	76	72.5	+3.5	−0.6%
10	Peterborough	46	84	80.5	+3.5	+2.6%
11	Leyton Orient	46	65	62.0	+3.0	+8.0%
12	Wycombe	46	65	63.0	+2.0	−6.2%
13	Stevenage	46	71	71.0	0.0	−8.4%
14	Shrewsbury	46	48	49.0	−1.0	−8.7%
15	Reading	46	59	60.5	−1.5	−10.4%
16	Blackpool	46	73	74.7	−1.7	−6.8%
17	Burton	46	46	48.4	−2.4	−0.4%
18	Bristol Rovers	46	57	60.8	−3.8	−3.1%
19	Cambridge	46	48	53.1	−5.1	−18.5%
20	Cheltenham	46	44	51.5	−7.5	−15.0%
21	Charlton	46	53	64.6	−11.6	−40.2%
22	Fleetwood Town	46	43	54.9	−11.9	−41.8%
23	Port Vale	46	41	55.8	−14.8	−35.8%
24	Carlisle	46	30	46.2	−16.2	−29.1%