England · Season 2024-25 · Data up to 3 May 2025

League One: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Wrexham	46	92	73.5	+18.5	+24.6%
2	Birmingham	46	111	92.6	+18.4	+20.2%
3	Reading	46	75	58.3	+16.7	+21.9%
4	Charlton	46	85	70.6	+14.4	+19.0%
5	Stockport	46	87	74.7	+12.3	+10.4%
6	Leyton Orient	46	78	66.8	+11.2	+26.2%
7	Wycombe	46	84	75.8	+8.2	+5.9%
8	Exeter	46	56	52.0	+4.0	−2.4%
9	Northampton	46	51	48.3	+2.7	−5.3%
10	Crawley Town	46	46	47.5	−1.5	−7.9%
11	Burton	46	47	48.5	−1.5	−16.2%
12	Wigan	46	56	58.6	−2.6	−21.2%
13	Blackpool	46	67	69.7	−2.7	−15.8%
14	Bristol Rovers	46	43	46.8	−3.8	−14.3%
15	Lincoln	46	61	65.6	−4.6	−20.0%
16	Stevenage	46	57	62.3	−5.3	−16.2%
17	Rotherham	46	59	64.4	−5.4	−12.6%
18	Barnsley	46	61	68.0	−7.0	−8.2%
19	Bolton	46	68	76.1	−8.1	−12.9%
20	Cambridge	46	38	46.8	−8.8	−30.7%
21	Mansfield	46	54	63.4	−9.4	−22.3%
22	Huddersfield	46	64	73.9	−9.9	−13.1%
23	Peterborough	46	51	61.7	−10.7	−33.7%
24	Shrewsbury	46	33	44.5	−11.5	−13.9%