England · Season 2025-26 · Data up to 2 May 2026

League One: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Lincoln	46	103	73.4	+29.6	+40.6%
2	Plymouth	46	73	63.1	+9.9	+29.3%
3	Stevenage	46	75	65.3	+9.7	+11.1%
4	Cardiff	46	91	81.5	+9.5	+8.1%
5	Bradford	46	77	67.9	+9.1	+13.4%
6	Mansfield	46	65	59.4	+5.6	+9.7%
7	Reading	46	63	58.6	+4.4	−7.2%
8	Blackpool	46	60	57.4	+2.6	−4.2%
9	Burton	46	54	53.0	+1.0	−4.1%
10	Stockport	46	77	76.1	+0.9	−5.6%
11	AFC Wimbledon	46	53	52.8	+0.2	−1.7%
12	Exeter	46	49	50.5	−1.5	−14.6%
13	Luton	46	74	75.9	−1.9	−11.8%
14	Barnsley	46	59	61.6	−2.6	−26.1%
15	Peterborough	46	53	55.7	−2.7	−10.8%
16	Doncaster	46	60	64.1	−4.1	−18.7%
17	Huddersfield	46	67	71.3	−4.3	−21.4%
18	Wigan	46	56	60.8	−4.8	−28.7%
19	Bolton	46	75	80.8	−5.8	−25.0%
20	Rotherham	46	41	48.5	−7.5	−27.5%
21	Leyton Orient	46	52	59.9	−7.9	−19.7%
22	Wycombe	46	63	71.0	−8.0	−19.1%
23	Port Vale	46	42	53.3	−11.3	−17.4%
24	Northampton	46	35	46.5	−11.5	−33.8%