England · Season 2026-27 · Data up to 24 Oct 2026

League One: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Oxford	10	19	13.7	+5.3	+44.3%
2	Huddersfield	12	25	21.4	+3.6	+9.9%
3	Bradford	12	22	18.8	+3.2	+11.0%
4	Burton	13	17	13.9	+3.1	+25.8%
5	Cambridge	12	20	17.1	+2.9	+8.3%
6	Mansfield	11	18	15.1	+2.9	+3.5%
7	Plymouth	13	22	19.9	+2.1	+19.2%
8	Sheffield Wednesday	11	18	16.1	+1.9	+3.5%
9	Reading	12	21	19.8	+1.2	−8.6%
10	Stockport	12	23	22.3	+0.7	+1.1%
11	Stevenage	11	15	14.5	+0.5	+0.4%
12	AFC Wimbledon	12	13	12.6	+0.4	−24.2%
13	Leyton Orient	12	14	14.8	−0.8	−8.0%
14	Notts County	11	11	11.8	−0.8	−47.5%
15	Luton	11	17	18.4	−1.4	−1.4%
16	Wycombe	12	15	17.0	−2.0	−40.5%
17	Milton Keynes Dons	11	12	14.3	−2.3	−36.8%
18	Bromley	11	9	11.3	−2.3	−32.4%
19	Blackpool	11	11	13.9	−2.9	−12.6%
20	Leicester	11	15	18.0	−3.0	−13.3%
21	Doncaster	11	12	15.2	−3.2	−39.1%
22	Barnsley	11	8	12.2	−4.2	−50.4%
23	Peterborough	12	10	14.3	−4.3	−39.3%
24	Wigan	11	7	12.4	−5.4	−41.6%