England · Season 2019-20 · Data up to 10 Mar 2020

League Two: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Cheltenham	36	64	49.0	+15.0	+20.2%
2	Plymouth	37	68	57.7	+10.3	+19.2%
3	Swindon	36	69	59.2	+9.8	+19.1%
4	Port Vale	37	57	49.8	+7.2	+8.5%
5	Crewe	37	69	61.9	+7.1	+3.4%
6	Exeter	37	65	57.9	+7.1	+1.3%
7	Northampton	37	58	52.7	+5.3	+14.1%
8	Crawley Town	37	48	46.5	+1.5	−23.1%
9	Colchester	37	58	57.2	+0.8	−2.5%
10	Grimsby	37	47	46.3	+0.7	+2.6%
11	Walsall	36	47	47.5	−0.5	+4.9%
12	Forest Green	36	49	50.0	−1.0	+3.4%
13	Salford	37	50	51.5	−1.5	−4.2%
14	Cambridge	37	45	46.5	−1.5	+6.9%
15	Carlisle	37	42	43.8	−1.8	−16.4%
16	Bradford	37	54	55.9	−1.9	−22.2%
17	Macclesfield	37	36	38.4	−2.4	−41.8%
18	Leyton Orient	36	42	45.9	−3.9	−18.8%
19	Oldham	37	41	46.0	−5.0	−32.2%
20	Newport County	36	46	52.0	−6.0	−18.6%
21	Morecambe	37	32	38.9	−6.9	−32.6%
22	Scunthorpe	37	40	50.3	−10.3	−33.2%
23	Mansfield	36	38	52.4	−14.4	−37.7%
24	Stevenage	36	22	39.9	−17.9	−76.5%