England · Season 2020-21 · Data up to 8 May 2021

League Two: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Morecambe	46	78	61.8	+16.2	+31.0%
2	Cambridge	46	80	66.5	+13.5	+31.8%
3	Bolton	46	79	66.4	+12.6	+21.0%
4	Tranmere	46	73	63.7	+9.3	+18.8%
5	Cheltenham	46	82	76.5	+5.5	+10.9%
6	Stevenage	46	60	56.0	+4.0	−7.5%
7	Forest Green	46	73	69.2	+3.8	−1.9%
8	Newport County	46	73	69.6	+3.4	−3.7%
9	Crawley Town	46	61	58.7	+2.3	+2.5%
10	Leyton Orient	46	61	59.7	+1.3	+4.2%
11	Southend	46	45	45.7	−0.7	−12.9%
12	Salford	46	71	71.9	−0.9	−14.0%
13	Oldham	46	54	55.1	−1.1	+12.0%
14	Colchester	46	51	53.7	−2.7	−30.0%
15	Bradford	46	59	61.9	−2.9	−12.7%
16	Port Vale	46	60	63.7	−3.7	−7.5%
17	Exeter	46	70	74.1	−4.1	−16.9%
18	Scunthorpe	46	48	53.3	−5.3	−10.4%
19	Carlisle	46	66	71.3	−5.3	−13.9%
20	Harrogate	46	57	63.2	−6.2	−4.8%
21	Grimsby	46	43	49.5	−6.5	−19.8%
22	Walsall	46	53	60.6	−7.6	−40.9%
23	Mansfield	46	58	67.2	−9.2	−29.2%
24	Barrow	46	50	59.4	−9.4	−14.7%