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England · Season 2021-22 · Data up to 7 May 2022

League Two: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Bristol Rovers 46 80 63.7
+16.3
+21.5%
2 Exeter 46 84 71.6
+12.4
+2.8%
3 Tranmere 46 75 62.8
+12.2
+13.8%
4 Northampton 46 80 68.2
+11.8
+19.5%
5 Sutton 46 76 65.1
+10.9
+11.2%
6 Swindon 46 77 68.5
+8.5
+16.6%
7 Crawley Town 46 61 53.5
+7.5
+31.7%
8 Port Vale 46 78 71.0
+7.0
+6.9%
9 Mansfield 46 77 70.1
+6.9
+1.7%
10 Forest Green 46 84 78.9
+5.1
−4.2%
11 Salford 46 70 67.7
+2.3
+0.3%
12 Newport County 46 69 68.1
+0.9
+2.9%
13 Colchester 46 55 54.2
+0.8
+1.3%
14 Carlisle 46 53 56.0
−3.0
−1.1%
15 Walsall 46 54 57.8
−3.8
−7.7%
16 Hartlepool 46 54 58.2
−4.2
−14.0%
17 Harrogate 46 53 61.0
−8.0
−14.7%
18 Bradford 46 58 66.1
−8.1
−15.5%
19 Leyton Orient 46 58 66.1
−8.1
−26.5%
20 Rochdale 46 53 63.3
−10.3
−30.8%
21 Oldham 46 38 48.5
−10.5
−29.7%
22 Stevenage 46 47 59.8
−12.8
−41.4%
23 Barrow 46 44 58.3
−14.3
−37.4%
24 Scunthorpe 46 26 40.4
−14.4
−69.8%