England · Season 2022-23 · Data up to 8 May 2023

League Two: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Leyton Orient	46	91	72.9	+18.1	+27.8%
2	Northampton	46	83	68.9	+14.1	+20.5%
3	Carlisle	46	76	66.1	+9.9	+2.4%
4	Crewe	46	58	48.9	+9.1	−3.2%
5	Salford	46	75	67.7	+7.3	+22.8%
6	Stevenage	46	85	78.2	+6.8	−3.3%
7	Bradford	46	76	69.8	+6.2	+11.2%
8	Doncaster	46	55	53.4	+1.6	+7.1%
9	Mansfield	46	75	74.8	+0.2	−1.0%
10	Barrow	46	62	62.4	−0.4	+10.7%
11	Harrogate	46	52	53.5	−1.5	−7.7%
12	Gillingham	46	55	56.5	−1.5	−15.8%
13	Swindon	46	61	63.1	−2.1	−7.5%
14	Tranmere	46	58	60.9	−2.9	−7.2%
15	Stockport	46	79	82.1	−3.1	−8.4%
16	Grimsby	46	61	64.8	−3.8	−5.9%
17	Hartlepool	46	43	46.8	−3.8	−34.8%
18	Crawley Town	46	46	50.9	−4.9	−26.4%
19	Sutton	46	58	64.5	−6.5	−26.7%
20	Walsall	46	55	61.5	−6.5	−36.0%
21	Colchester	46	49	56.1	−7.1	−23.5%
22	Newport County	46	57	64.2	−7.2	−20.0%
23	AFC Wimbledon	46	48	57.0	−9.0	−28.3%
24	Rochdale	46	38	54.4	−16.4	−35.2%