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England · Season 2023-24 · Data up to 27 Apr 2024

League Two: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Harrogate 46 63 48.9
+14.1
+20.3%
2 Crawley Town 46 70 56.5
+13.5
+37.4%
3 Doncaster 46 71 57.8
+13.2
+15.8%
4 Crewe 46 71 58.8
+12.2
+25.5%
5 Morecambe 46 61 51.1
+9.9
+22.5%
6 Milton Keynes Dons 46 78 70.9
+7.1
+11.2%
7 Stockport 46 92 85.7
+6.3
+0.2%
8 Wrexham 46 88 82.3
+5.7
+1.0%
9 Barrow 46 69 65.8
+3.2
−10.5%
10 Walsall 46 65 62.3
+2.7
+6.3%
11 Mansfield 46 86 84.2
+1.8
−4.0%
12 Tranmere 46 57 55.7
+1.3
+7.4%
13 Accrington 46 57 56.1
+0.9
−2.2%
14 Newport County 46 55 54.7
+0.3
+9.0%
15 Bradford 46 69 70.3
−1.3
+0.2%
16 Gillingham 46 64 65.7
−1.7
+4.0%
17 AFC Wimbledon 46 65 70.6
−5.6
−17.3%
18 Swindon 46 54 62.2
−8.2
−22.2%
19 Salford 46 51 59.5
−8.5
−23.9%
20 Grimsby 46 49 59.6
−10.6
−43.1%
21 Colchester 46 45 55.7
−10.7
−29.2%
22 Forest Green 46 42 52.9
−10.9
−16.5%
23 Sutton 46 42 53.0
−11.0
−30.3%
24 Notts County 46 61 72.1
−11.1
−20.2%