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England · Season 2024-25 · Data up to 3 May 2025

League Two: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Port Vale 46 80 70.8
+9.2
+12.8%
2 Newport County 46 49 40.8
+8.2
+2.6%
3 Grimsby 46 68 61.6
+6.4
+30.2%
4 Cheltenham 46 60 53.7
+6.3
+12.2%
5 Bromley 46 66 59.9
+6.1
+3.6%
6 Harrogate 46 53 47.7
+5.3
+5.3%
7 Doncaster 46 84 78.8
+5.2
+3.3%
8 Salford 46 69 63.9
+5.1
−1.2%
9 Bradford 46 78 74.8
+3.2
−5.7%
10 Crewe 46 62 61.4
+0.6
−14.2%
11 Colchester 46 67 66.4
+0.6
−19.3%
12 Walsall 46 77 76.5
+0.5
−7.0%
13 Swindon 46 62 61.6
+0.4
−9.5%
14 AFC Wimbledon 46 73 73.2
−0.2
−8.2%
15 Notts County 46 72 72.9
−0.9
−12.1%
16 Gillingham 46 58 59.1
−1.1
−5.5%
17 Chesterfield 46 70 72.5
−2.5
−10.8%
18 Accrington 46 50 53.2
−3.2
−5.0%
19 Barrow 46 59 63.6
−4.6
−16.0%
20 Fleetwood Town 46 60 65.3
−5.3
−12.3%
21 Tranmere 46 51 58.6
−7.6
−30.8%
22 Morecambe 46 36 47.1
−11.1
−26.1%
23 Carlisle 46 42 55.8
−13.8
−32.9%
24 Milton Keynes Dons 46 52 67.1
−15.1
−34.3%