England · Season 2025-26 · Data up to 2 May 2026

League Two: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Bromley	46	87	68.7	+18.3	+14.6%
2	Notts County	46	80	70.2	+9.8	+15.2%
3	Salford	46	81	72.9	+8.1	+20.9%
4	Chesterfield	46	79	71.6	+7.4	+4.1%
5	Milton Keynes Dons	46	86	79.3	+6.7	−2.6%
6	Cambridge	46	82	75.9	+6.1	−5.2%
7	Grimsby	46	78	72.0	+6.0	+9.8%
8	Swindon	46	75	69.1	+5.9	+5.7%
9	Cheltenham	46	52	47.2	+4.8	+7.1%
10	Oldham	46	68	64.3	+3.7	−2.8%
11	Crewe	46	67	63.4	+3.6	+2.5%
12	Fleetwood Town	46	61	60.4	+0.6	−20.8%
13	Bristol Rovers	46	62	61.5	+0.5	−3.8%
14	Accrington	46	53	52.9	+0.1	−7.6%
15	Walsall	46	65	65.3	−0.3	−2.3%
16	Colchester	46	66	66.6	−0.6	−9.1%
17	Newport County	46	43	43.9	−0.9	+4.2%
18	Barnet	46	76	77.6	−1.6	−1.8%
19	Harrogate	46	39	44.1	−5.1	−10.0%
20	Shrewsbury	46	49	54.8	−5.8	−13.6%
21	Gillingham	46	53	61.3	−8.3	−35.9%
22	Tranmere	46	41	56.2	−15.2	−45.5%
23	Crawley Town	46	40	55.8	−15.8	−59.4%
24	Barrow	46	36	52.5	−16.5	−34.4%