England · Season 2026-27 · Data up to 26 Oct 2026

League Two: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Cheltenham	13	21	14.6	+6.4	+33.3%
2	Salford	13	28	22.8	+5.2	+25.8%
3	Barnet	11	22	18.6	+3.4	+15.1%
4	Crewe	13	21	17.7	+3.3	−9.2%
5	Exeter	13	19	15.9	+3.1	−1.2%
6	Walsall	12	19	16.2	+2.8	−15.3%
7	Shrewsbury	13	18	15.4	+2.6	+28.4%
8	Accrington	13	18	15.6	+2.4	−29.4%
9	Gillingham	13	17	15.1	+1.9	−0.7%
10	Swindon	13	16	14.7	+1.3	+5.2%
11	Newport County	13	15	14.2	+0.8	−30.2%
12	York	12	20	20.5	−0.5	−24.8%
13	Tranmere	13	16	17.1	−1.1	−34.4%
14	Rochdale	13	15	16.3	−1.3	−10.1%
15	Chesterfield	13	19	21.6	−2.6	−5.0%
16	Northampton	11	13	15.7	−2.7	−27.2%
17	Port Vale	11	12	15.2	−3.2	−30.1%
18	Fleetwood Town	13	14	17.7	−3.7	−36.8%
19	Colchester	12	12	16.0	−4.0	−62.1%
20	Rotherham	13	12	16.9	−4.9	−54.4%
21	Crawley Town	11	6	11.0	−5.0	−63.4%
22	Grimsby	13	17	22.2	−5.2	−42.5%
23	Bristol Rovers	13	16	21.2	−5.2	−33.9%
24	Oldham	12	12	18.3	−6.3	−51.6%