Mexico · Season 2020-21 · Data up to 31 May 2021

Liga MX: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Club America	38	76	57.0	+19.0	+34.6%
2	Cruz Azul	44	87	73.9	+13.1	+29.6%
3	Puebla	41	58	46.0	+12.0	+22.6%
4	UNAM Pumas	40	58	47.6	+10.4	−2.7%
5	Club Leon	41	78	70.2	+7.8	+3.9%
6	Guadalajara Chivas	40	59	55.2	+3.8	+7.5%
7	Toluca	38	47	44.8	+2.2	−4.7%
8	Santos Laguna	42	62	61.9	+0.1	−14.9%
9	Mazatlan FC	34	37	38.3	−1.3	−5.4%
10	Pachuca	42	59	61.6	−2.6	−10.4%
11	Juarez	34	34	36.6	−2.6	−35.1%
12	Tigres UANL	38	57	62.5	−5.5	−16.9%
13	Necaxa	35	35	40.6	−5.6	−37.4%
14	Monterrey	37	59	64.7	−5.7	−20.6%
15	Atlas	37	42	48.1	−6.1	−23.0%
16	Club Tijuana	34	35	42.5	−7.5	−38.1%
17	Queretaro	35	34	43.7	−9.7	−32.9%
18	Atlético San Luis	34	23	37.7	−14.7	−44.0%