Mexico · Season 2021-22 · Data up to 30 May 2022

Liga MX: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Tigres UANL	42	73	65.8	+7.2	+3.6%
2	Atlas	46	74	67.9	+6.1	+4.3%
3	Mazatlan FC	35	42	36.4	+5.6	+15.5%
4	UNAM Pumas	40	53	47.6	+5.4	+4.7%
5	Puebla	40	56	50.9	+5.1	+14.3%
6	Pachuca	40	67	63.0	+4.0	+1.6%
7	Club America	40	67	65.3	+1.7	−8.8%
8	Toluca	35	43	41.5	+1.5	+0.6%
9	Guadalajara Chivas	38	53	52.2	+0.8	−13.9%
10	Atlético San Luis	38	45	45.3	−0.3	−0.5%
11	Necaxa	35	44	44.4	−0.4	+8.1%
12	Club Leon	40	59	59.6	−0.6	−5.4%
13	Santos Laguna	37	50	53.4	−3.4	−22.4%
14	Cruz Azul	38	52	56.1	−4.1	−20.4%
15	Queretaro	34	32	38.7	−6.7	−50.7%
16	Juarez	34	27	34.1	−7.1	−16.0%
17	Monterrey	38	54	63.4	−9.4	−31.8%
18	Club Tijuana	34	32	42.3	−10.3	−37.1%