Argentina · Season 2019-20 · Data up to 10 Mar 2020

Liga Profesional: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Boca Juniors	23	48	41.0	+7.0	+8.8%
2	Argentinos Juniors	23	39	32.1	+6.9	+4.2%
3	San Lorenzo	23	36	30.9	+5.1	+53.2%
4	Defensa y Justicia	23	36	31.0	+5.0	+25.4%
5	Rosario Central	23	36	31.4	+4.6	+15.2%
6	Arsenal Sarandi	23	34	29.5	+4.5	+5.4%
7	Racing Club	23	39	35.6	+3.4	−10.2%
8	Velez Sarsfield	23	39	36.4	+2.6	+23.1%
9	Talleres Cordoba	23	34	31.6	+2.4	+19.3%
10	Atlético Tucumán	23	29	26.9	+2.1	−8.3%
11	Lanus	23	36	34.8	+1.2	−7.6%
12	Central Cordoba	23	26	25.5	+0.5	−19.9%
13	Newells Old Boys	23	35	34.7	+0.3	−16.8%
14	River Plate	23	47	47.2	−0.2	−2.7%
15	Aldosivi	23	22	22.7	−0.7	−0.1%
16	Estudiantes de La Plata	23	30	31.7	−1.7	−18.0%
17	Patronato	23	23	25.2	−2.2	−28.0%
18	Union de Santa Fe	23	27	29.3	−2.3	−27.8%
19	Huracan	23	22	24.8	−2.8	−24.6%
20	Godoy Cruz	23	18	21.7	−3.7	+37.4%
21	Gimnasia de La Plata	23	23	28.4	−5.4	−16.4%
22	Banfield	23	26	32.4	−6.4	−24.0%
23	Independiente	23	29	36.4	−7.4	−31.0%
24	Colon Santa Fe	23	18	25.8	−7.8	−47.4%