Argentina · Season 2022 · Data up to 26 Oct 2022

Liga Profesional: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Atlético Tucumán	27	46	38.1	+7.9	+7.6%
2	Patronato	27	40	32.4	+7.6	+32.0%
3	Boca Juniors	27	52	45.1	+6.9	+30.3%
4	Barracas Central	27	34	27.2	+6.8	+2.4%
5	San Lorenzo	27	43	36.7	+6.3	+15.9%
6	Newells Old Boys	27	40	34.6	+5.4	+36.1%
7	Racing Club	27	50	45.3	+4.7	+0.4%
8	Gimnasia de La Plata	27	41	36.4	+4.6	+8.9%
9	Defensa y Justicia	27	40	35.5	+4.5	+5.6%
10	Huracan	27	47	42.8	+4.2	−11.3%
11	Central Cordoba	27	34	31.7	+2.3	+23.8%
12	Sarmiento Junin	27	32	30.4	+1.6	+14.5%
13	Tigre	27	43	41.5	+1.5	−9.5%
14	Argentinos Juniors	27	42	41.0	+1.0	−0.3%
15	Platense	27	32	32.6	−0.6	−8.1%
16	Rosario Central	27	32	33.5	−1.5	−18.7%
17	Arsenal Sarandi	27	30	32.0	−2.0	−25.3%
18	Talleres Cordoba	27	35	37.6	−2.6	−10.7%
19	Independiente	27	35	37.6	−2.6	−19.3%
20	Union de Santa Fe	27	32	35.2	−3.2	−15.0%
21	River Plate	27	47	51.6	−4.6	−5.7%
22	Godoy Cruz	27	35	39.7	−4.7	−19.4%
23	Colon Santa Fe	27	29	33.8	−4.8	−13.6%
24	Banfield	27	30	35.6	−5.6	−4.4%
25	Estudiantes de La Plata	27	33	39.6	−6.6	−33.8%
26	Aldosivi	27	16	24.6	−8.6	−48.4%
27	Velez Sarsfield	27	28	39.4	−11.4	−53.6%
28	Lanus	27	21	32.5	−11.5	−45.2%