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Argentina · Season 2023 · Data up to 31 Jul 2023

Liga Profesional: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Defensa y Justicia 27 44 36.4
+7.6
+5.1%
2 River Plate 27 61 53.5
+7.5
+12.4%
3 Rosario Central 27 42 34.9
+7.1
−4.5%
4 San Lorenzo 27 46 39.2
+6.8
+6.6%
5 Barracas Central 27 35 28.2
+6.8
+12.1%
6 Lanus 27 45 38.4
+6.6
+6.5%
7 Godoy Cruz 27 41 35.0
+6.0
−0.3%
8 Talleres Cordoba 27 50 44.2
+5.8
+17.3%
9 Estudiantes de La Plata 27 45 42.2
+2.8
+1.7%
10 Belgrano 27 36 33.4
+2.6
+4.3%
11 Atlético Tucumán 27 37 34.6
+2.4
−7.5%
12 Platense 27 34 31.8
+2.2
+0.7%
13 Boca Juniors 27 44 42.2
+1.8
+9.7%
14 Gimnasia de La Plata 27 30 29.3
+0.7
+1.6%
15 Sarmiento Junin 27 30 30.9
−0.9
−19.7%
16 Newells Old Boys 27 35 37.0
−2.0
−20.6%
17 Central Cordoba 27 29 31.3
−2.3
−14.5%
18 Instituto 27 32 35.1
−3.1
−13.3%
19 Arsenal Sarandi 27 22 25.8
−3.8
+25.4%
20 Argentinos Juniors 27 40 43.9
−3.9
−11.3%
21 Tigre 27 34 38.1
−4.1
−12.8%
22 Union de Santa Fe 27 30 34.2
−4.2
−37.8%
23 Racing Club 27 36 41.2
−5.2
−30.3%
24 Banfield 27 30 35.3
−5.3
−23.5%
25 Independiente 27 28 35.0
−7.0
−38.6%
26 Colon Santa Fe 27 25 34.1
−9.1
−52.1%
27 Velez Sarsfield 27 27 38.0
−11.0
−48.3%
28 Huracan 27 25 37.2
−12.2
−49.0%