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Argentina · Season 2024 · Data up to 17 Dec 2024

Liga Profesional: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Independiente Rivadavia 27 38 28.8
+9.2
+45.6%
2 Huracan 27 46 38.8
+7.2
+5.0%
3 Deportivo Riestra 27 35 28.1
+6.9
+6.5%
4 Platense 27 39 34.2
+4.8
+7.9%
5 Velez Sarsfield 27 51 46.3
+4.7
+1.3%
6 Talleres Cordoba 27 48 43.4
+4.6
+21.6%
7 Tigre 27 34 31.1
+2.9
+11.1%
8 Union de Santa Fe 27 40 37.3
+2.7
−4.4%
9 Atlético Tucumán 27 40 37.5
+2.5
−3.7%
10 Central Cordoba 27 31 29.5
+1.5
−6.9%
11 Belgrano 27 35 33.9
+1.1
−15.2%
12 Racing Club 27 46 45.8
+0.2
+3.4%
13 Godoy Cruz 27 35 35.1
−0.1
−12.6%
14 Independiente 27 40 40.7
−0.7
−22.0%
15 Sarmiento Junin 27 26 27.4
−1.4
−17.5%
16 Barracas Central 27 23 24.4
−1.4
+4.3%
17 Boca Juniors 27 42 43.7
−1.7
−23.4%
18 Lanus 27 36 37.7
−1.7
−18.6%
19 Defensa y Justicia 27 32 34.0
−2.0
−33.2%
20 Instituto 27 36 38.3
−2.3
−12.4%
21 Rosario Central 27 32 34.6
−2.6
−14.1%
22 Gimnasia de La Plata 27 32 34.9
−2.9
−15.5%
23 Estudiantes de La Plata 27 36 41.4
−5.4
−28.6%
24 San Lorenzo 27 29 34.8
−5.8
−22.3%
25 Newells Old Boys 27 28 34.0
−6.0
+9.3%
26 Banfield 27 24 31.1
−7.1
−48.3%
27 Argentinos Juniors 27 30 39.0
−9.0
−33.3%
28 River Plate 27 43 53.6
−10.6
−35.5%