Argentina · Season 2025 · Data up to 14 Dec 2025

Liga Profesional: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Rosario Central	35	69	53.0	+16.0	+28.7%
2	Deportivo Riestra	34	53	39.5	+13.5	+41.2%
3	Barracas Central	35	50	37.6	+12.4	+28.2%
4	Tigre	35	53	43.6	+9.4	+30.8%
5	Boca Juniors	37	69	61.3	+7.7	+9.7%
6	San Lorenzo	36	55	48.0	+7.0	+5.9%
7	Huracan	36	54	49.7	+4.3	+14.8%
8	Gimnasia de La Plata	35	44	40.5	+3.5	+44.6%
9	Argentinos Juniors	36	64	60.8	+3.2	+3.7%
10	Racing Club	37	61	57.9	+3.1	+11.5%
11	Independiente Rivadavia	33	43	40.6	+2.4	+0.8%
12	Sarmiento Junin	32	35	33.4	+1.6	−0.9%
13	Lanus	34	51	49.4	+1.6	−5.4%
14	Central Cordoba	34	45	43.8	+1.2	−7.6%
15	Platense	36	45	44.4	+0.6	−1.5%
16	Aldosivi	32	33	33.8	−0.8	+21.8%
17	Independiente	35	54	55.0	−1.0	−13.1%
18	Banfield	32	35	38.0	−3.0	−7.6%
19	Estudiantes de La Plata	37	52	55.7	−3.7	−4.4%
20	Newells Old Boys	32	33	37.3	−4.3	−11.2%
21	Defensa y Justicia	32	38	42.8	−4.8	−14.3%
22	Belgrano	32	37	42.9	−5.9	−30.1%
23	Union de Santa Fe	33	39	45.6	−6.6	−27.3%
24	Atlético Tucumán	32	34	40.9	−6.9	−25.3%
25	San Martín de San Juan	32	28	34.9	−6.9	−39.1%
26	Velez Sarsfield	33	40	47.0	−7.0	−12.9%
27	Instituto	33	34	41.2	−7.2	−34.0%
28	Godoy Cruz	32	29	37.6	−8.6	−50.2%
29	River Plate	35	57	65.7	−8.7	−26.0%
30	Talleres Cordoba	33	34	49.7	−15.7	−43.7%