France · Season 2020-21 · Data up to 23 May 2021

Ligue 1: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Lille	38	83	67.7	+15.3	+29.3%
2	Monaco	38	78	68.4	+9.6	+24.4%
3	Metz	38	47	40.9	+6.1	+12.8%
4	Lens	38	57	51.5	+5.5	+10.2%
5	Nice	38	52	46.7	+5.3	+36.2%
6	Marseille	38	60	56.0	+4.0	+8.1%
7	Montpellier	38	54	50.4	+3.6	+17.9%
8	Nimes	38	35	35.1	−0.1	+5.8%
9	Lyon	38	76	76.6	−0.6	−2.6%
10	Saint-Étienne	38	46	46.9	−0.9	−8.0%
11	Bordeaux	38	45	46.2	−1.2	−0.6%
12	Rennes	38	58	59.8	−1.8	−16.4%
13	Angers	38	44	45.8	−1.8	−15.6%
14	Lorient	38	42	43.9	−1.9	+2.6%
15	Reims	38	42	43.9	−1.9	−29.3%
16	Brest	38	41	44.5	−3.5	−19.6%
17	Paris Saint-Germain	38	82	87.2	−5.2	−9.0%
18	Nantes	38	40	47.7	−7.7	−11.3%
19	Strasbourg	38	42	50.6	−8.6	−23.7%
20	Dijon	38	21	31.5	−10.5	−42.4%