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France · Season 2023-24 · Data up to 19 May 2024

Ligue 1: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Brest 34 61 47.4
+13.6
+24.8%
2 Monaco 34 67 57.2
+9.8
+21.9%
3 Paris Saint-Germain 34 76 70.8
+5.2
+5.1%
4 Lyon 34 53 49.2
+3.8
+16.9%
5 Toulouse 34 43 39.9
+3.1
+20.4%
6 Lille 34 59 57.2
+1.8
−14.6%
7 Nice 34 55 54.1
+0.9
+2.4%
8 Strasbourg 34 39 38.3
+0.7
−18.4%
9 Reims 34 47 47.2
−0.2
+0.9%
10 Montpellier 34 42 42.3
−0.3
−19.2%
11 Metz 34 29 31.2
−2.2
+0.1%
12 Le Havre 34 32 34.8
−2.8
−36.2%
13 Nantes 34 33 37.1
−4.1
−8.6%
14 Lens 34 51 55.6
−4.6
−20.1%
15 Lorient 34 29 33.7
−4.7
−12.4%
16 Rennes 34 46 52.4
−6.4
−25.4%
17 Marseille 34 50 57.5
−7.5
−34.9%
18 Clermont 34 25 33.7
−8.7
−51.0%