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France · Season 2025-26 · Data up to 17 May 2026

Ligue 1: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Lens 34 70 58.1
+11.9
+29.4%
2 Rennes 34 59 50.2
+8.8
+33.9%
3 Lorient 34 45 38.8
+6.2
+10.1%
4 Lyon 34 60 54.6
+5.4
+24.5%
5 Lille 34 61 56.4
+4.6
+14.6%
6 Angers 34 36 31.4
+4.6
−12.3%
7 Strasbourg 34 53 48.7
+4.3
−1.2%
8 Paris FC 34 44 42.0
+2.0
−7.7%
9 Le Havre 34 35 35.8
−0.8
−33.9%
10 Brest 34 39 40.2
−1.2
−21.5%
11 Toulouse 34 45 46.5
−1.5
−8.6%
12 Paris Saint-Germain 34 76 77.9
−1.9
−7.7%
13 Marseille 34 59 61.0
−2.0
−3.3%
14 Auxerre 34 34 37.1
−3.1
−30.9%
15 Monaco 34 54 58.7
−4.7
+9.8%
16 Nantes 34 24 32.9
−8.9
−28.3%
17 Metz 34 17 28.7
−11.7
−62.7%
18 Nice 34 32 44.0
−12.0
−48.0%