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France · Season 2019-20 · Data up to 9 Mar 2020

Ligue 2: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Ajaccio 28 52 39.8
+12.2
+35.9%
2 Valenciennes 28 42 32.6
+9.4
+37.8%
3 Troyes 28 51 41.9
+9.1
+41.4%
4 Clermont 28 50 43.1
+6.9
+21.8%
5 Lorient 28 54 48.8
+5.2
+15.0%
6 Lens 28 53 48.4
+4.6
+4.5%
7 Chateauroux 28 34 29.4
+4.6
+43.3%
8 Chambly 28 35 32.8
+2.2
+21.7%
9 Le Havre 28 44 43.8
+0.2
−2.9%
10 Sochaux 28 34 35.6
−1.6
−18.0%
11 Caen 28 34 35.6
−1.6
−8.3%
12 Grenoble 28 35 36.8
−1.8
−29.4%
13 Rodez 28 32 34.8
−2.8
−13.4%
14 Guingamp 28 39 42.4
−3.4
−10.1%
15 Niort 28 26 30.0
−4.0
−30.0%
16 Paris FC 28 28 32.6
−4.6
−14.2%
17 Le Mans 28 26 31.4
−5.4
−19.7%
18 Nancy 28 34 39.6
−5.6
−59.7%
19 Auxerre 28 34 41.0
−7.0
−32.8%
20 Orleans 28 19 34.1
−15.1
−43.7%