France · Season 2021-22 · Data up to 14 May 2022

Ligue 2: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Ajaccio	38	75	61.8	+13.2	+27.2%
2	Auxerre	38	74	61.7	+12.3	+11.8%
3	Paris FC	38	70	58.9	+11.1	+19.8%
4	Toulouse	38	79	71.0	+8.0	+1.3%
5	Sochaux	38	68	61.5	+6.5	+2.8%
6	Guingamp	38	58	53.1	+4.9	+3.9%
7	Niort	38	46	43.5	+2.5	+3.2%
8	Le Havre	38	50	48.4	+1.6	+0.1%
9	Grenoble	38	44	42.6	+1.4	−0.5%
10	Pau FC	38	49	48.0	+1.0	+2.6%
11	Nimes	38	49	49.2	−0.2	+8.4%
12	Quevilly Rouen	38	40	40.9	−0.9	−13.4%
13	Valenciennes	38	44	46.1	−2.1	−20.7%
14	Caen	38	50	52.6	−2.6	−10.8%
15	Dijon	38	47	51.0	−4.0	−13.0%
16	Amiens	38	44	49.4	−5.4	−43.7%
17	Rodez	38	43	49.3	−6.3	−26.3%
18	Dunkerque	38	31	38.8	−7.8	−17.8%
19	Bastia	38	46	53.8	−7.8	−29.1%
20	Nancy	38	27	46.3	−19.3	−54.2%