France · Season 2023-24 · Data up to 17 May 2024

Ligue 2: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Angers	38	68	59.4	+8.6	+12.6%
2	Rodez	38	60	51.9	+8.1	+3.8%
3	Pau FC	38	51	44.3	+6.7	+11.9%
4	Auxerre	38	74	69.0	+5.0	−0.4%
5	Paris FC	38	59	54.3	+4.7	+3.3%
6	Laval	38	55	51.1	+3.9	+16.6%
7	Bastia	38	51	47.2	+3.8	+15.6%
8	Caen	38	58	55.4	+2.6	+0.6%
9	Amiens	38	53	50.5	+2.5	−4.8%
10	Dunkerque	38	46	43.6	+2.4	+19.2%
11	Saint-Étienne	38	65	62.6	+2.4	+6.4%
12	Annecy	38	46	45.6	+0.4	+6.7%
13	Grenoble	38	51	51.6	−0.6	+0.1%
14	Troyes	37	41	43.0	−2.0	−20.7%
15	Concarneau	38	38	42.1	−4.1	−9.2%
16	Ajaccio	38	46	50.2	−4.2	−18.9%
17	Guingamp	38	51	57.4	−6.4	−16.5%
18	Bordeaux	38	51	60.7	−9.7	−26.4%
19	Valenciennes	37	26	36.9	−10.9	−50.9%
20	Quevilly Rouen	38	38	52.3	−14.3	−42.9%