France · Season 2024-25 · Data up to 10 May 2025

Ligue 2: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Paris FC	34	69	59.4	+9.6	+15.9%
2	Annecy	34	51	41.8	+9.2	+4.8%
3	Dunkerque	34	56	47.4	+8.6	+24.2%
4	Laval	34	50	42.2	+7.8	+37.1%
5	Lorient	34	71	64.2	+6.8	+7.9%
6	Metz	34	65	59.6	+5.4	+6.4%
7	Grenoble	34	46	40.7	+5.3	+24.8%
8	Ajaccio	34	42	37.4	+4.6	+25.1%
9	Martigues	34	32	28.4	+3.6	+45.5%
10	Amiens	34	43	39.5	+3.5	+17.3%
11	Guingamp	34	55	53.6	+1.4	+0.7%
12	Troyes	34	44	44.9	−0.9	−1.4%
13	Pau FC	34	42	44.3	−2.3	−20.7%
14	Bastia	34	48	51.6	−3.6	−31.9%
15	Red Star	34	38	41.6	−3.6	−24.8%
16	Rodez	34	39	47.7	−8.7	−38.6%
17	Clermont	34	33	44.5	−11.5	−44.3%
18	Caen	34	22	44.4	−22.4	−67.8%