France · Season 2025-26 · Data up to 9 May 2026

Ligue 2: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Rodez	34	58	43.0	+15.0	+26.6%
2	Le Mans	34	62	49.4	+12.6	+12.5%
3	Troyes	34	67	55.2	+11.8	+17.4%
4	Annecy	34	52	44.2	+7.8	+18.4%
5	Red Star	33	55	48.3	+6.7	+3.9%
6	Pau FC	34	45	43.6	+1.4	−5.9%
7	Grenoble	34	39	38.1	+0.9	−25.8%
8	Montpellier	34	51	50.8	+0.2	−6.0%
9	Saint-Étienne	34	60	60.8	−0.8	−5.4%
10	Boulogne	34	36	37.1	−1.1	−2.0%
11	Clermont	34	37	39.3	−2.3	−17.9%
12	Reims	34	56	58.6	−2.6	−21.1%
13	Dunkerque	34	43	49.4	−6.4	−22.6%
14	Nancy	34	37	45.1	−8.1	−34.5%
15	Amiens	34	24	32.6	−8.6	−28.7%
16	Guingamp	34	40	49.2	−9.2	−20.9%
17	Laval	34	32	41.3	−9.3	−49.5%
18	Bastia	33	28	44.8	−16.8	−56.7%