Points expected by the market
The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.
United States · Season 2026 · Data up to 22 Oct 2026
MLS: the market vs the results
Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.
Gap
Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.
Yield
The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.
Sorted by gap, high to low
Above expectationsBelow expectations
| 1 | Nashville SC | 30 | 67 | 50.4 |
+16.6
|
+31.1% |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 30 | 52 | 39.5 |
+12.5
|
+30.3% |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 30 | 51 | 40.0 |
+11.0
|
+17.8% |
| 4 | St. Louis City | 30 | 51 | 42.0 |
+9.0
|
+11.8% |
| 5 | San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 48 | 39.6 |
+8.4
|
+23.6% |
| 6 | Charlotte | 30 | 47 | 41.3 |
+5.7
|
−0.7% |
| 7 | Orlando City | 30 | 41 | 36.0 |
+5.0
|
+14.8% |
| 8 | Houston Dynamo | 30 | 47 | 42.9 |
+4.1
|
+9.3% |
| 9 | Toronto FC | 30 | 36 | 34.5 |
+1.5
|
−7.3% |
| 10 | Inter Miami | 30 | 55 | 54.3 |
+0.7
|
−6.3% |
| 11 | Chicago Fire | 30 | 48 | 47.4 |
+0.6
|
−5.2% |
| 12 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | 40 | 40.1 |
−0.1
|
−13.7% |
| 13 | Colorado Rapids | 30 | 39 | 39.7 |
−0.7
|
−20.1% |
| 14 | Austin FC | 30 | 31 | 31.9 |
−0.9
|
−7.9% |
| 15 | DC United | 30 | 33 | 34.1 |
−1.1
|
−29.8% |
| 16 | New York Red Bulls | 30 | 36 | 37.8 |
−1.8
|
+0.4% |
| 17 | Philadelphia Union | 30 | 46 | 48.1 |
−2.1
|
−19.7% |
| 18 | Portland Timbers | 30 | 34 | 36.3 |
−2.3
|
−14.9% |
| 19 | Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 22 | 24.8 |
−2.8
|
−14.9% |
| 20 | FC Cincinnati | 30 | 39 | 42.0 |
−3.0
|
−25.5% |
| 21 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 55 | 59.0 |
−4.0
|
−20.2% |
| 22 | Seattle Sounders | 30 | 42 | 46.6 |
−4.6
|
−25.0% |
| 23 | Real Salt Lake | 30 | 36 | 41.4 |
−5.4
|
−33.4% |
| 24 | Atlanta United | 30 | 30 | 36.7 |
−6.7
|
−25.9% |
| 25 | Minnesota United | 30 | 34 | 41.3 |
−7.3
|
−22.0% |
| 26 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 46 | 53.7 |
−7.7
|
−35.8% |
| 27 | New York City | 30 | 34 | 41.8 |
−7.8
|
−34.0% |
| 28 | San Diego FC | 30 | 34 | 42.4 |
−8.4
|
−43.4% |
| 29 | CF Montreal | 30 | 25 | 34.0 |
−9.0
|
−33.8% |
| 30 | Columbus Crew | 30 | 35 | 46.5 |
−11.5
|
−28.6% |