United States · Season 2019 · Data up to 10 Nov 2019

MLS: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Real Salt Lake	36	56	45.2	+10.8	+12.9%
2	New York City	35	64	54.0	+10.0	+8.8%
3	Seattle Sounders	38	66	56.2	+9.8	+17.9%
4	DC United	35	51	43.7	+7.3	+8.7%
5	Los Angeles FC	36	75	68.2	+6.8	+7.3%
6	Colorado Rapids	34	42	36.6	+5.4	+23.4%
7	Los Angeles Galaxy	36	54	49.3	+4.7	+22.8%
8	Minnesota United	35	53	49.0	+4.0	+16.7%
9	Philadelphia Union	36	56	53.0	+3.0	+3.9%
10	FC Dallas	35	49	48.4	+0.6	−14.7%
11	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	34	33.5	+0.5	−7.9%
12	Atlanta United	37	64	63.7	+0.3	−4.6%
13	Toronto FC	38	57	56.8	+0.2	−9.4%
14	New England Revolution	35	45	45.2	−0.2	−24.8%
15	Portland Timbers	35	49	50.0	−1.0	+12.5%
16	New York Red Bulls	35	49	50.8	−1.8	−2.9%
17	San Jose Earthquakes	34	44	47.0	−3.0	−16.3%
18	Orlando City	34	37	40.6	−3.6	−25.1%
19	CF Montreal	34	41	44.8	−3.8	−9.4%
20	Houston Dynamo	34	40	46.2	−6.2	−24.8%
21	Chicago Fire	34	42	49.4	−7.4	−39.5%
22	Columbus Crew	34	38	46.1	−8.1	−16.6%
23	FC Cincinnati	34	24	33.8	−9.8	−24.4%
24	Sporting Kansas City	34	38	50.9	−12.9	−38.4%