United States · Season 2020 · Data up to 13 Dec 2020

MLS: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Philadelphia Union	27	53	37.0	+16.0	+45.0%
2	Portland Timbers	28	50	40.2	+9.8	+18.9%
3	Vancouver Whitecaps	24	28	18.5	+9.5	+74.8%
4	Minnesota United	27	44	35.1	+8.9	+20.3%
5	Columbus Crew	28	52	44.2	+7.8	+11.3%
6	Orlando City	29	49	41.8	+7.2	+6.7%
7	Nashville SC	26	37	31.9	+5.1	+3.8%
8	Seattle Sounders	27	48	44.6	+3.4	−2.4%
9	Toronto FC	25	45	41.8	+3.2	+2.8%
10	Colorado Rapids	19	28	25.0	+3.0	+13.3%
11	San Jose Earthquakes	26	34	31.9	+2.1	+21.4%
12	FC Dallas	24	35	33.1	+1.9	−0.2%
13	New York City	26	43	41.5	+1.5	+2.3%
14	CF Montreal	25	26	25.9	+0.1	+19.2%
15	New England Revolution	28	41	41.6	−0.6	−4.8%
16	New York Red Bulls	24	32	33.4	−1.4	−5.0%
17	Sporting Kansas City	25	41	43.4	−2.4	−8.2%
18	DC United	23	21	24.8	−3.8	−21.0%
19	FC Cincinnati	24	17	22.3	−5.3	−23.0%
20	Real Salt Lake	23	22	28.9	−6.9	−42.0%
21	Atlanta United	23	22	29.7	−7.7	−42.3%
22	Houston Dynamo	23	21	29.1	−8.1	−47.3%
23	Los Angeles Galaxy	22	22	30.2	−8.2	−14.4%
24	Chicago Fire	23	23	32.5	−9.5	−57.6%
25	Los Angeles FC	25	36	47.3	−11.3	−36.8%
26	Inter Miami	24	24	35.3	−11.3	−38.2%