ESEN

United States · Season 2021 · Data up to 11 Dec 2021

MLS: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 New England Revolution 35 74 58.5
+15.5
+31.7%
2 Portland Timbers 38 65 50.8
+14.2
+44.2%
3 Vancouver Whitecaps 35 49 35.9
+13.1
+8.8%
4 Seattle Sounders 35 61 53.0
+8.0
+27.3%
5 Colorado Rapids 35 61 54.4
+6.6
+8.9%
6 Real Salt Lake 37 52 47.2
+4.8
+13.2%
7 Sporting Kansas City 36 61 56.9
+4.1
+17.8%
8 CF Montreal 34 46 42.0
+4.0
0.0%
9 Nashville SC 36 58 54.5
+3.5
−20.4%
10 Atlanta United 35 51 47.6
+3.4
−18.7%
11 Columbus Crew 34 47 45.1
+1.9
−3.9%
12 Philadelphia Union 37 56 54.3
+1.7
−24.5%
13 Los Angeles Galaxy 34 48 46.7
+1.3
+3.3%
14 DC United 34 47 45.9
+1.1
−4.0%
15 New York Red Bulls 35 49 48.2
+0.8
−0.7%
16 San Jose Earthquakes 34 41 41.1
−0.1
−2.5%
17 Orlando City 35 51 51.5
−0.5
−23.3%
18 Minnesota United 35 49 49.7
−0.7
−21.4%
19 Inter Miami 34 41 42.1
−1.1
+4.6%
20 New York City 38 59 65.6
−6.6
−21.6%
21 Chicago Fire 34 34 40.8
−6.8
−30.6%
22 FC Dallas 34 33 43.3
−10.3
−41.1%
23 Austin FC 34 31 42.1
−11.1
−26.0%
24 Houston Dynamo 34 30 43.0
−13.0
−64.1%
25 Toronto FC 34 28 41.3
−13.3
−46.5%
26 Los Angeles FC 34 45 59.4
−14.4
−35.5%
27 FC Cincinnati 34 20 35.4
−15.4
−60.1%