United States · Season 2022 · Data up to 5 Nov 2022

MLS: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	CF Montreal	36	68	52.3	+15.7	+49.6%
2	Philadelphia Union	37	74	58.4	+15.6	+22.8%
3	Inter Miami	35	48	38.9	+9.1	+14.5%
4	Austin FC	37	60	51.7	+8.3	+25.1%
5	Los Angeles FC	37	74	66.4	+7.6	+14.6%
6	FC Cincinnati	36	52	46.0	+6.0	+6.4%
7	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	43	37.1	+5.9	+6.9%
8	FC Dallas	36	54	50.5	+3.5	−2.9%
9	Minnesota United	35	49	46.0	+3.0	+10.7%
10	Real Salt Lake	35	48	45.4	+2.6	−6.7%
11	Charlotte	34	42	39.6	+2.4	+16.6%
12	Portland Timbers	34	46	44.9	+1.1	−25.1%
13	Orlando City	35	48	47.6	+0.4	+2.3%
14	New York City	37	61	61.6	−0.6	+2.1%
15	Sporting Kansas City	34	40	41.2	−1.2	−17.3%
16	Los Angeles Galaxy	36	53	55.1	−2.1	−9.1%
17	Nashville SC	35	50	52.2	−2.2	+3.1%
18	Columbus Crew	34	46	48.9	−2.9	−33.3%
19	New York Red Bulls	35	53	56.7	−3.7	+2.6%
20	San Jose Earthquakes	34	35	39.5	−4.5	−36.2%
21	Colorado Rapids	34	43	47.9	−4.9	−30.9%
22	Chicago Fire	34	39	44.2	−5.2	−18.3%
23	Houston Dynamo	34	36	41.7	−5.7	−8.8%
24	Toronto FC	34	34	39.7	−5.7	−24.3%
25	Atlanta United	34	40	48.5	−8.5	−40.8%
26	Seattle Sounders	34	41	49.7	−8.7	−27.8%
27	New England Revolution	34	42	51.4	−9.4	−38.4%
28	DC United	34	27	39.9	−12.9	−39.0%