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United States · Season 2023 · Data up to 9 Dec 2023

MLS: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Orlando City 37 70 50.9
+19.1
+49.4%
2 FC Cincinnati 38 77 57.9
+19.1
+31.0%
3 St. Louis City 36 56 46.6
+9.4
+29.2%
4 Columbus Crew 40 68 61.6
+6.4
−7.3%
5 New England Revolution 36 55 49.6
+5.4
−7.2%
6 Houston Dynamo 39 59 53.8
+5.2
−1.1%
7 Real Salt Lake 37 52 48.3
+3.7
+14.5%
8 Philadelphia Union 37 61 58.2
+2.8
+2.0%
9 Atlanta United 37 54 52.5
+1.5
−16.5%
10 CF Montreal 34 41 39.8
+1.2
−7.0%
11 San Jose Earthquakes 35 45 44.1
+0.9
−22.4%
12 FC Dallas 37 49 48.5
+0.5
−18.0%
13 Seattle Sounders 38 59 58.9
+0.1
−3.4%
14 Portland Timbers 34 43 44.0
−1.0
−17.0%
15 Charlotte 35 43 44.1
−1.1
−16.2%
16 Sporting Kansas City 38 51 53.0
−2.0
−9.1%
17 Chicago Fire 34 40 42.1
−2.1
−11.0%
18 Nashville SC 36 49 51.1
−2.1
−18.9%
19 Vancouver Whitecaps 36 48 50.7
−2.7
−22.6%
20 Los Angeles FC 39 64 67.8
−3.8
−12.5%
21 Minnesota United 34 41 45.9
−4.9
−10.4%
22 Austin FC 34 39 45.0
−6.0
−17.4%
23 Inter Miami 34 34 40.1
−6.1
−19.3%
24 DC United 34 40 46.3
−6.3
−26.4%
25 New York City 34 41 49.2
−8.2
−49.8%
26 Los Angeles Galaxy 34 36 44.6
−8.6
−40.4%
27 New York Red Bulls 37 47 56.7
−9.7
−30.5%
28 Colorado Rapids 34 27 40.7
−13.7
−57.8%
29 Toronto FC 34 22 37.8
−15.8
−69.2%