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United States · Season 2024 · Data up to 7 Dec 2024

MLS: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Los Angeles Galaxy 39 79 60.1
+18.9
+29.4%
2 Inter Miami 37 77 58.7
+18.3
+48.7%
3 Real Salt Lake 36 61 53.7
+7.3
−0.2%
4 Columbus Crew 36 67 59.9
+7.1
+13.9%
5 CF Montreal 35 44 37.5
+6.5
−5.2%
6 FC Cincinnati 37 63 56.8
+6.2
+27.4%
7 Minnesota United 37 54 48.1
+5.9
+12.0%
8 Los Angeles FC 38 71 66.8
+4.2
+6.1%
9 Charlotte 37 53 48.8
+4.2
+0.8%
10 Houston Dynamo 36 56 52.9
+3.1
+7.4%
11 Austin FC 34 42 39.2
+2.8
+0.6%
12 Seattle Sounders 38 60 58.4
+1.6
−2.7%
13 Colorado Rapids 36 50 48.7
+1.3
+3.0%
14 Vancouver Whitecaps 38 53 52.4
+0.6
+0.1%
15 Orlando City 39 60 59.8
+0.2
−2.0%
16 FC Dallas 34 41 41.0
0.0
−20.8%
17 Portland Timbers 35 47 47.4
−0.4
−19.5%
18 New York Red Bulls 39 57 58.7
−1.7
−8.5%
19 New York City 38 54 56.4
−2.4
−14.2%
20 Atlanta United 39 47 50.0
−3.0
+3.2%
21 Toronto FC 34 37 40.3
−3.3
+1.6%
22 DC United 34 40 45.5
−5.5
−19.6%
23 Nashville SC 34 36 41.9
−5.9
−23.5%
24 St. Louis City 34 37 44.2
−7.2
−49.7%
25 New England Revolution 34 31 39.6
−8.6
−15.9%
26 Sporting Kansas City 34 31 41.9
−10.9
−43.7%
27 Chicago Fire 34 30 41.8
−11.8
−45.2%
28 Philadelphia Union 34 37 48.9
−11.9
−28.5%
29 San Jose Earthquakes 34 21 38.4
−17.4
−32.4%