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United States · Season 2025 · Data up to 6 Dec 2025

MLS: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Philadelphia Union 37 70 55.2
+14.8
+32.8%
2 FC Cincinnati 38 71 56.2
+14.8
+39.9%
3 San Diego FC 39 73 61.2
+11.8
+39.1%
4 New York City 39 66 54.6
+11.4
+28.9%
5 Inter Miami 40 80 68.8
+11.2
+13.6%
6 Charlotte 37 60 50.2
+9.8
+23.2%
7 Vancouver Whitecaps 39 71 61.3
+9.7
+21.9%
8 Chicago Fire 37 57 50.3
+6.7
+22.8%
9 Minnesota United 38 60 55.2
+4.8
+3.7%
10 FC Dallas 36 45 42.5
+2.5
−3.8%
11 Los Angeles FC 37 67 64.6
+2.4
−9.2%
12 Nashville SC 37 57 55.0
+2.0
−4.9%
13 Portland Timbers 38 48 47.5
+0.5
−9.4%
14 Seattle Sounders 37 60 60.1
−0.1
−14.6%
15 Austin FC 36 47 47.3
−0.3
+0.6%
16 Colorado Rapids 34 41 42.3
−1.3
−7.6%
17 Columbus Crew 37 57 58.9
−1.9
−22.3%
18 Toronto FC 34 32 34.1
−2.1
−29.6%
19 San Jose Earthquakes 34 41 43.5
−2.5
−8.0%
20 Orlando City 35 53 55.8
−2.8
−12.5%
21 New York Red Bulls 34 43 46.7
−3.7
−27.9%
22 CF Montreal 34 28 35.2
−7.2
−29.4%
23 Real Salt Lake 35 41 48.6
−7.6
−23.0%
24 New England Revolution 33 33 40.8
−7.8
−24.1%
25 Houston Dynamo 34 37 45.1
−8.1
−22.9%
26 St. Louis City 34 32 40.8
−8.8
−34.0%
27 Sporting Kansas City 34 28 37.7
−9.7
−38.1%
28 Los Angeles Galaxy 34 30 42.4
−12.4
−55.9%
29 DC United 34 26 39.0
−13.0
−40.7%
30 Atlanta United 33 28 43.0
−15.0
−58.5%