England · Season 2026-27 · Data up to 24 Oct 2026

National League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Boreham Wood	14	38	27.4	+10.6	+38.4%
2	Altrincham	14	27	17.4	+9.6	+70.8%
3	Worthing	14	27	18.8	+8.2	+42.2%
4	Harrogate	14	31	23.2	+7.8	+32.6%
5	Yeovil	14	25	19.1	+5.9	+16.2%
6	Hornchurch	14	21	16.8	+4.2	+33.6%
7	Fylde	14	23	19.7	+3.3	+22.1%
8	Halifax	14	21	18.3	+2.7	−1.3%
9	Southend	14	28	25.4	+2.6	−4.1%
10	Barrow	13	21	18.6	+2.4	+12.5%
11	Eastleigh	14	18	15.9	+2.1	+12.3%
12	Kidderminster	14	20	18.4	+1.6	−0.9%
13	Aldershot	14	18	16.6	+1.4	+5.8%
14	Sutton	14	18	18.8	−0.8	−18.1%
15	Woking	14	18	19.2	−1.2	−1.7%
16	Wealdstone	14	15	16.9	−1.9	−18.9%
17	Tamworth	13	14	16.5	−2.5	−25.6%
18	Hartlepool	14	15	19.3	−4.3	−9.1%
19	Carlisle	14	20	24.4	−4.4	−35.4%
20	Forest Green	12	15	20.1	−5.1	−41.2%
21	Boston United	14	12	18.2	−6.2	−38.5%
22	Scunthorpe	13	10	16.9	−6.9	−48.0%
23	Gateshead	13	4	11.9	−7.9	−79.5%
24	Solihull	14	7	16.3	−9.3	−57.3%