England · Season 2019-20 · Data up to 14 Mar 2020

National League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Barrow	37	70	57.9	+12.1	+20.0%
2	Boreham Wood	37	60	50.0	+10.0	+13.5%
3	Halifax	37	58	48.9	+9.1	+28.5%
4	Harrogate	37	66	57.6	+8.4	+7.8%
5	Notts County	38	63	55.9	+7.1	+14.7%
6	Yeovil	37	60	53.1	+6.9	+15.8%
7	Stockport	39	58	51.2	+6.8	+13.9%
8	Woking	38	55	49.3	+5.7	+19.9%
9	Barnet	35	54	49.4	+4.6	−4.0%
10	Sutton	38	50	48.5	+1.5	−7.6%
11	Hartlepool	39	55	53.9	+1.1	−9.0%
12	Dover Athletic	38	54	53.1	+0.9	+10.7%
13	Aldershot	39	46	46.4	−0.4	−7.9%
14	Maidenhead	38	41	41.8	−0.8	+18.3%
15	Ebbsfleet	39	42	44.2	−2.2	−8.4%
16	Bromley	38	52	55.6	−3.6	−16.9%
17	Dagenham & Redbridge	37	44	47.6	−3.6	−18.4%
18	Eastleigh	37	46	49.8	−3.8	−19.2%
19	Torquay	36	48	52.0	−4.0	−11.6%
20	Solihull	38	55	60.9	−5.9	−24.0%
21	Chesterfield	38	44	50.9	−6.9	−19.7%
22	Wrexham	37	43	54.4	−11.4	−23.3%
23	Chorley	38	26	42.1	−16.1	−66.9%
24	Fylde	37	39	55.3	−16.3	−45.4%