England · Season 2020-21 · Data up to 29 May 2021

National League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Sutton	42	84	69.6	+14.4	+20.1%
2	Torquay	43	83	71.9	+11.1	+18.3%
3	Bromley	43	72	63.2	+8.8	+7.8%
4	Hartlepool	42	76	68.6	+7.4	+11.6%
5	Eastleigh	43	66	58.6	+7.4	+19.9%
6	Maidenhead	42	56	48.6	+7.4	+37.6%
7	Dagenham & Redbridge	43	63	55.6	+7.4	+10.8%
8	Wrexham	43	71	64.2	+6.8	+0.4%
9	Halifax	42	65	59.8	+5.2	+4.8%
10	Chesterfield	42	69	66.0	+3.0	+5.5%
11	Solihull	43	67	65.4	+1.6	−5.3%
12	Weymouth	42	39	38.5	+0.5	+24.3%
13	Wealdstone	42	37	37.4	−0.4	−24.7%
14	Aldershot	43	55	55.7	−0.7	−4.2%
15	Stockport	43	80	81.1	−1.1	−13.5%
16	Altrincham	43	50	51.2	−1.2	−10.2%
17	Notts County	43	70	72.9	−2.9	−12.3%
18	Dover Athletic	15	10	14.1	−4.1	−24.5%
19	Yeovil	43	55	62.1	−7.1	−19.1%
20	Boreham Wood	43	56	65.7	−9.7	−35.7%
21	Barnet	43	31	40.9	−9.9	−34.0%
22	King's Lynn	43	34	44.8	−10.8	−48.7%
23	Woking	43	36	51.5	−15.5	−51.3%