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England · Season 2022-23 · Data up to 29 Apr 2023

National League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Barnet 46 74 60.0
+14.0
+19.8%
2 Wrexham 46 111 99.3
+11.7
+2.3%
3 Notts County 46 107 97.8
+9.2
+0.9%
4 Wealdstone 46 60 50.9
+9.1
+1.7%
5 Eastleigh 46 67 59.1
+7.9
+7.6%
6 Woking 46 82 74.9
+7.1
+4.4%
7 Bromley 46 71 65.0
+6.0
−6.9%
8 Dorking 46 57 52.9
+4.1
−8.1%
9 Oldham 46 61 57.6
+3.4
−1.5%
10 Dagenham & Redbridge 46 63 60.2
+2.8
+24.1%
11 Halifax 46 61 59.2
+1.8
+13.1%
12 Boreham Wood 46 72 70.5
+1.5
−12.5%
13 Aldershot 46 53 52.3
+0.7
−5.7%
14 Chesterfield 46 84 85.7
−1.7
−7.2%
15 Torquay 46 48 50.0
−2.0
−12.0%
16 Altrincham 46 56 59.0
−3.0
−25.1%
17 Gateshead 46 60 63.1
−3.1
−21.3%
18 Southend 46 69 72.3
−3.3
−18.6%
19 Maidenhead 46 50 54.0
−4.0
−17.2%
20 York 46 51 57.5
−6.5
−14.1%
21 Yeovil 46 40 50.4
−10.4
−55.9%
22 Solihull 46 58 69.4
−11.4
−39.5%
23 Scunthorpe 46 34 49.0
−15.0
−48.5%
24 Maidstone 46 25 47.2
−22.2
−74.2%