England · Season 2023-24 · Data up to 20 Apr 2024

National League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Solihull	46	76	59.0	+17.0	+30.5%
2	Bromley	46	81	66.1	+14.9	+23.2%
3	Altrincham	46	77	67.0	+10.0	+14.6%
4	Halifax	46	71	62.4	+8.6	+19.2%
5	Aldershot	46	69	61.9	+7.1	+15.1%
6	Barnet	46	86	79.5	+6.5	+5.3%
7	Eastleigh	46	59	53.0	+6.0	+3.8%
8	Maidenhead	46	58	53.0	+5.0	−1.8%
9	Chesterfield	46	98	94.3	+3.7	+0.2%
10	Wealdstone	46	56	55.8	+0.2	−1.0%
11	Dorking	46	45	44.9	+0.1	+6.2%
12	Southend	46	75	75.0	0.0	−1.7%
13	Rochdale	46	62	62.2	−0.2	−8.9%
14	Gateshead	46	75	77.9	−2.9	+4.0%
15	Hartlepool	46	60	63.6	−3.6	−10.0%
16	York	46	53	57.4	−4.4	−6.5%
17	Ebbsfleet	46	54	59.7	−5.7	−24.4%
18	Dagenham & Redbridge	46	56	62.1	−6.1	−27.7%
19	Oxford City	46	33	39.1	−6.1	−32.2%
20	Oldham	46	63	69.7	−6.7	−21.7%
21	Fylde	46	55	61.8	−6.8	−11.5%
22	Boreham Wood	46	52	63.8	−11.8	−34.3%
23	Woking	46	55	67.5	−12.5	−14.8%
24	Kidderminster	46	46	59.8	−13.8	−28.3%